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Shaughnessy: Ainge to keep team together

Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy joined me on Thursday's show, and said he believes the Celtics will try to win another championship this season with their current core of star players

Shaughnessy talked to Celtics GM Danny Ainge early Thursday and believes that no major moves will be made this offseason. Also, he doesn't foresee the Celtics moving up in the draft.

Listen to Thursday's show in its entirety by clicking here (Shaughnessy interview 20 minutes in).

Unpack those bags

Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen have been rumored to be involved in several trades prior to Thursday's NBA Draft, but if Danny Ainge truly wants to win next year, he can do it by keeping them both

Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge made it perfectly clear in a press conference on Tuesday: no player is untradeable.

Agreed.

Ainge would not be doing his job if he didn't at least entertain the possibility of improving next season. And according to reports, Ainge is doing a little more than just entertaining deals. He's offering them.

First there was the rumor of Rondo and Allen to Phoenix in exchange for Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa, and the 14th overall pick in this year's draft.

Then there was the rumor of Rondo and Allen to Detroit in exchange for Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rodney Stuckey.

And as of Wednesday morning, there was the rumor of Rondo and Brian Scalabrine to Memphis for Mike Conley and Rudy Gay.

The deal with Phoenix doesn't seem to make much sense for the present. Trading one of the league's top point guards to add depth to a front court that's already set with Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins isn't worth trying to set up the future, even if Stoudemire and Barbosa are each only 26 years old.

Stoudemire is one of those players who can opt out of his already large contract ($16.4 million in 2009-10, and a $17.7 million player option for 2010-11) to join the All-Star free agent class next summer that includes the likes of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, just to name a few.

If the point of a trade this offseason is to gain an expiring contract, then the Celtics should just hold onto both Rondo and Allen, because Allen's $19.8 million in the last year of his contract in 2009-10 will be off the books by next offseason, meaning the Celtics could just let him walk after that, freeing up plenty of space to become active in that mouth-watering free agent class.

And even if they're worried about Rondo asking for big money as a restricted free agent next offseason, if he's worth a big deal, then that would mean he's one of the more dominant players in the league at the tender age of 24, something you would think the Celtics would be thrilled to hold onto.

But with so many big-name players available in free agency next offseason, the Celtics would be foolish not to plan accordingly now, in order to have some salary cap space then to make a splash.

That type of thinking certainly shouldn't cause the Celtics to go out and sign off on that "proposed" deal with Detroit. Hamilton signed a three-year extension last year, averaging out at $11 million per season, and Prince is locked up for the next two years at $10.3 and $11.1 million. Acquiring those large contracts would rule out the strategy of trying to get involved in next year's free-agent frenzy, wouldn't it?

And Stuckey, who's only two months older than Rondo, isn't a deal-breaker by any means.

Assuming that the Memphis trade rumor was just a joke (I'd like to be in the room when Ainge is explaining to Garnett, Pierce, and Allen why he traded one of the league's top point guards for Conley and Gay), let's move on to what's actually going to happen this offseason.

It's time to be a little more realistic, if you will. It's time to realize that, sure, these trades were probably talked about. These players were probably being shopped. And for the right deal, Rondo and Allen would probably each be dealt.

And regardless of who's come out and stated they were the one that declined any potential deal, the overriding truth still stands: none of the above trades make sense for the Celtics.

If you're thinking of the future, then you shouldn't be looking any further than 2009-10. With a healthy Garnett, and yes, even a healthy Leon Powe, the Celtics will once again be a favorite to win the NBA Championship for the second time in three years. That includes a team consisting of both Rondo and Allen, of course.

So much emphasis is being put on the class of free agents after next season, that many teams seem to be more interested in the summer of 2010 than the season that begins in the fall of 2009.

But if it wasn't for Garnett's season-ending injury, then we may have been sitting here talking about a potential three-peat, not any potential trades that would break up the foundation of the team. That's right, I said it, the foundation.

Not Allen, of course. But Rondo.

In a point-guard dominant league (just ask New Orleans and Chicago), Rondo is one of the game's elite, and he's only 23. His jump shot is only going to improve, and his vision and ability to get to the basket is second to none.

Rondo isn't untradeable. Nobody is. But he's about as close as they come, because he's not a work in progress. He's the real deal.

And trading someone who's a top player at a position that's so very valuable, just to be able to open up cap space for next offseason, isn't the strategy that a guy like Garnett agreed to come to Boston for. Because if you remember correctly, Garnett originally declined a trade to the Celtics before the draft in 2007, only to come around to accepting it two months later.

Garnett changed his mind mostly because he saw Ainge and the Celtics take a step in the right direction. Instead of choosing someone like Corey Brewer or Yi Jianlian with the No. 5 pick in the 2007 draft, the Celtics traded for a proven talent in Allen.

That acquisition alone showed Garnett that Boston was no longer holding onto the hopes of a lottery pick saving them from the pithole of the NBA. It showed him an organization that was serious about winning, and serious about winning now.

And winning now should still be part of the game plan, regardless of how much better Cleveland is after a trade sent Shaquille O'Neal to the Cavaliers late Wednesday night.

The Celtics will still contend if they can be healthy come the postseason. And if they contend, then they'll prove to the rest of the league that Boston is still an organization that wants to win now. And winning now goes a long way, come free agency.

Sure, money is always a factor with any free agent athlete. But history shows, especially in this city, that promising a chance to contend for a title can be the difference-maker in that free agent's decision (even though he was traded, you can still ask Garnett).

Like I said back in 2007 after the Celtics traded for Allen (before they traded for Garnett), trading the No. 5 pick, and eventually some other young players, for proven All-Star talent would lead to winning. And winning would lead to rebuilding through the free agent market.

There's no bigger free agent market than next offseason, and the Celtics will most definitely be involved. They don't have to trade Rondo. They don't have to trade Allen. They can take one more shot with the players they currently have, and can move on from there.

With the Celtics, we're so used to looking ahead to the future, because for so long, we had nothing in the present. But that's no longer a concern.

These Celtics are winning, and they can win it all again if they keep the core together. Worry about the future when it comes. Worry about the free agent class of 2010 when they're available for nothing more than the signing of a check.

Let these Celtics try to win another championship, then let Allen walk, and maybe even Pierce, if he chooses to opt-out of his $21.5 million player option for 2010-11. Then hit the free agent market, and bring in a young stud, or two, to play with Garnett and a more matured All Star in Rondo.

After all, what better selling point to a free agent than asking him to join the "defending NBA Champions."

Jeff Howe checks in

With plenty of Celtics trade rumors swirling, beat writer Jeff Howe of The Boston Metro and NESN.com made his case, Tuesday, as to why Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen aren't going anywhere

Howe joined me on Tuesday's show to talk Celtics trade rumors, the NBA Draft, and also about the news he first reported late Monday night: Boston College to play Boston University at Fenway during the 2010 Winter Classic as a prelude to the Boston Bruins and, most likely, the Philadelphia Flyers.

Listen to the interview in its entirety by clicking here.

Like a Glover

Lucas Glover hit big shots down the stretch to win the 109th U.S. Open, however, his championship can easily be overlooked by several other story lines over the very wet weekend at Bethpage Black

The Boston Globe's Mike Whitmer was in New York all weekend, and joined me on Monday's show to talk about those story lines and recap the U.S. Open. Follow Whitmer's golf blog at Boston.com.

To listen to Monday's show in its entirety, click here.

Up for debate

Jose Reyes is currently on the DL, but that hasn't stopped a debate in the Big Apple about whether or not the Mets' shortstop should be traded to Boston in a deal for young pitching

Matt Cerrone of Metsblog.com has posted a link to my story last week in which I brought up the possibility of the Red Sox trying to break up New York's "Big Three" by offering a deal that consists of Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie.

Over 6,000 voters have had their say in New York today, and 81% "would consider it."

Red Sox fans should check out Metsblog.com and have their say, but I want to warn you. Be sure to read my story first.

Many of those commenting on Metsblog.com today are assuming that the Red Sox would be giving up too much to receive Reyes. But what they're not doing is reading the story and realizing that I'm basing the trade around signing Matt Holliday in the same offseason, and putting him in center.

To receive both Holliday and Reyes, and filling three holes - a power bat, an All Star shortstop, and an everyday leadoff hitter regardless of matchups - would be a huge offseason for the Red Sox, who missed out on that power bat of the future last winter by not signing Mark Teixeira.

They're also assuming that this is a deal that's actually on the table. Well, it's not. It's something I thought of, with regards to the future of this Red Sox team during a time in which we're seeing the decline of David Ortiz a serious need at shortstop.

And as much as Red Sox fans who have fallen in love with Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury would hate to admit it, if Theo Epstein wasn't thinking of the future now, which may include trading those two players for a proven All Star, then he wouldn't be doing his job.

I just threw this deal out there as a possibility. I've also thrown other possibilities out there, inluding a deal to acquire Hanley Ramirez. I include Buchholz and Ellsbury because these are the first two players other teams will ask for in return for one of their young studs they can no longer afford.

But it's good to know that people in New York would make this move, if it ever came to light that Reyes was on the block. Because there's no doubt the Red Sox will be looking for a shortstop this offseason. Seems like a perfect match to me.

So to Red Sox fans: Buchholz and Ellsbury could very well be involved in a deal this offseason. Whether it's a deal I came up with on my free time, or one Epstein creates on his own, it's a very strong possibility, given the big-name players that may be available, and the cheap youth the Red Sox have to offer.

Remember that history lesson I dropped on you? Deal with it.

History lesson

Seeing Hanley Ramirez at Fenway this week will make Red Sox fans wonder what it'll take to bring the All Star shortstop back to his original organization, and Clay Buchholz' trade value will quickly remind them of the trade that initially sent Ramirez to Florida

Theo Epstein would make the move a million times over again if he had the chance.

Giving up pitchers Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, and Harvey Garcia wasn't a tough call. It was letting go of top shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez just a few months after the Edgar Renteria project quickly went stale.

But in order to replace the loss of Pedro Martinez, and to add a younger ace than Curt Schilling, the Red Sox needed to seriously consider parting ways with their future shortstop after the 2005 season, a prospect they knew would soon be on his way to becoming a star.

Josh Beckett was the prized possession then. Just 25 years old when the trade was made, Beckett already had a reputation for being a big-game pitcher with an edge. At 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, the feisty Texan wasn't afraid to go up and in with his fastball, and he already knew how to win a big game at Yankee Stadium, closing out the 2003 World Series with a complete game shutout in Game 6 in New York.

Beckett was coming off his best season in his first-four full seasons in the big leagues, posting a 15-8 record with a 3.38 ERA and two complete games (one shutout) in 2005. The Marlins wanted to receive a package that was built around Ramirez, and in return, give the Red Sox Mike Lowell's large contract in a package that consisted of Lowell, Beckett, and reliever Guillermo Mota.

For Boston, it was never about Lowell, who was 31 at the time of the trade and was coming off the worst season of his career in 2005 with a .236 batting average, eight home runs, and 58 RBI in 150 games. He was just a throw-in, a bag of baseballs if you will, to go along with a stud pitcher for the future. The Red Sox would eventually make the deal, and hope for the best with Lowell.

Since the trade went through, Beckett has finished 48-28 in his first three seasons with the Red Sox from 2006-2008. That's not including his 5-0 record in seven postseason starts in 2007 and 2008.

Beckett was as dominant as you'll see in a postseason in 2007, leading the Red Sox to their second World Series championship in four years. He finished 4-0 in four starts with one complete-game shutout, and only allowed four earned runs in 30 innings, walking only two batters and striking out 35.

Meanwhile, the contract-dumper that Florida added to the trade has been pretty good as well. Lowell has turned out to be much more than an over-priced player on the decline, and was named 2007 World Series MVP.

With all of that said, the 2005 trade between Boston and Florida has been nothing short of a success. The Marlins were able to dump both a large salary (Lowell) and a stud player they would not be able to afford for much longer (Beckett), while being able to acquire a highly touted prospect (Ramirez) that they'd be able to rebuild around.

The Red Sox were able to add a proven ace, while giving up a top prospect, a prospect who is now one of the best players in the league at the tender age of 25, the same age Beckett was when he was dealt from Florida to Boston. Knowing that, and being reminded of it this week in a three-game set against Ramirez' Marlins at Fenway, Epstein would again make the same trade a million times over.

It's trading potential for the sure thing, a sentiment that's going to arise once again this week with Ramirez back in town.

Regardless of how well Nick Green is playing, or how soon Jed Lowrie will be back from the DL, or even if you're starting to have a renewed faith in Julio Lugo's game after the weekend, the shortstop position in Boston is one that needs fixing for the future. Maybe not as much this season as people think, but certainly for years to come, especially if a kid like Ramirez happens to be available this offseason.

Ramirez entered Tuesday night's game against Boston batting .330 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, 38 runs, and nine stolen bases. His fielding percentage has also improved from last year, at a .978 clip.

The Marlins signed him to a six-year, $70 million extension at the beginning of last season, but the deal is heavily back-loaded to favor Florida's low budget. Ramirez is making only $5.5 million this season, and will make $7 million in 2010. That affordable salary kicks up to $11 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $15.5 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014.

The closer he gets to double digits, the more likely the Marlins will consider trading Ramirez for a few top prospects, similar to what they did with Beckett after the 2005 season. That time could come this offseason, especially since it was reported in December that the Red Sox made a play to trade for Ramirez after losing out on Mark Teixeira over the winter.

It had also been reported that Florida was most interested in both prospect pitcher Clay Buchholz and Red Sox centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Comments from Buchholz over the weekend indicate that he feels he's ready for his shot in the big leagues. And certainly most major league clubs looking to acquire young starting pitching feel the same way after his 4-0 record and 1.74 ERA in 11 starts with Triple-A Pawtucket this season.

With John Smoltz joining the crowded Red Sox pitching staff next week, there seems to be no room for Buchholz right now in Boston's rotation. And even if there was, you have to wonder if the Red Sox would want to risk his already sky-high trade value by calling him up to the majors this season, when they know they'll be dealing him in the offseason.

Buchholz didn't do his trade value any favors by putting together a 2-9 season with a 6.75 ERA in 15 starts last year with Boston. As long as he stays in Triple-A and dominates, the higher his trade value will get, and the more other organizations will focus on his dominating performances, including a no-hitter in 2007.

Regardless of if Buchholz is in the organization's long-term plans or not, the Red Sox would be foolish to not send him to Florida if it meant receiving Ramirez in return. After all, it would be a similar situation to which Epstein found himself after the 2005 season with Ramirez-for-Beckett.

It's a little different because there's always the possibility that Buchholz will be a dominant starter for years to come, and at 24, he's arbitration eligible through 2013. That possibility was also there for Ramirez, but finding a stud starting pitcher and an ace for the future at a cheap price is much tougher to find than a power bat.

But like Ramirez in 2005, Buchholz has a great deal of potential. And also like Ramirez in 2005, the Red Sox should trade that "potential" for the sure thing if they have the chance.

A future state of mind

The following is the third of a three part column on the recent decline of David Ortiz, the hope that it’s not as bad as it seems, and the future of a Red Sox offense that once called Big Papi its savior

The hardest part is acceptance.

To see it is one thing. To see it and realize that the end of the road has come is another issue altogether. But once you realize that David Ortiz’ best days are behind him, you’ll be the first to inquire about the team’s plans to replace him, if you haven’t already.

Ortiz finished a three-game set against the New York Yankees having hit in eight of his last nine games, which included a seven-game hit streak and three home runs in the last five, giving him four long-balls on the year.

Sure, it’s a positive sign. It’s a sign that maybe Ortiz’ career didn’t just come to the sudden end that most of you were predicting, and that he still has something left in the tank. But even with this recent stretch of “better” baseball from Ortiz, you can’t deny the big picture: Big Papi’s decline is in full swing.

Much of the talk surrounding his lack of production includes replacing Ortiz right now, with someone like Washington’s Nick Johnson being the most reasonable type of acquisition.

The Nationals’ rumored asking price of Manny Delcarmen a few weeks ago is clearly too high, and not something the Red Sox should do. But if they can somehow get Johnson for a lot less, then of course, it’s something they should pull the trigger on.

The problem with giving up a lot to get a replacement for only this season is that there’s always the chance Ortiz does snap out of this funk, and takes off running with his recent stretch of big hits and positive at-bats. Nobody’s saying Ortiz is going to hit 30 home runs, but if he starts to come around in a more consistent fashion, it’s in the Red Sox’ best interest to let him continue to produce and boost his confidence.

If that happened, and you did give up a major piece to acquire Johnson, then Johnson would be the one on the bench more often than not, and you would have given up a big part of the bullpen to acquire what, a utility infielder?

So with the team winning while all of this is going on (two games ahead of the Yankees for first place in the AL East after Thursday’s three-game sweep), the only major move the Red Sox should be thinking about is the one they need to make in the offseason. With Ortiz on his way out, it’s time to start thinking of a future replacement, not a band-aid for the rest of this season, especially when there’s potential for the cut to heal on its own.

Did you say, the future, Danny?

Indeed I did, so let us now look into the future. All the way into the year 2010 (sorry Conan, I had to do it).

Figuring that the Red Sox will re-sign Jason Bay at some point (the outfield looks locked up with Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, and J.D. Drew) the biggest offensive name that will be available this winter is outfielder Matt Holliday.

Holliday, 29, will be dealt before July 31st. That’s the only reason Oakland traded for him this past offseason. Athletics GM Billy Beane knew Holliday would be in high demand during his contract year, and will give him up for the right price at any time.

That price would be in the form of top prospects. It’s the way Oakland does business, and it will work once again this summer.

But big-market clubs, like the Red Sox, should hold off on giving up their top prospects for Holliday’s services, for one reason, and one reason only: Scott Boras.

Boras is Holliday’s agent, which means regardless of what team he’s traded to this summer, that team will have to deal with the fact that Holliday’s plans will include testing the free agent market, if not to sign with the team of his choice, then to force his former team to pony up even more money.

So it would be foolish for Theo Epstein to deal some of his top prospects to acquire a guy that isn’t guaranteed to even be with them next year. If the Red Sox want Holliday bad enough, they can sign him to a long-term deal in the offseason, and hold onto the prospects for another potential deal.

But is Holliday the long-term replacement for Ortiz? And where would he play?

Holliday saw a decrease in production last year with Colorado in a somewhat shortened season (139 games), finishing the year with 25 home runs and 88 RBI, but did hit .321 and had an on-base percentage of .409.

Many wondered if leaving Colorado would affect his home run power (34 home runs/114 RBI in 2006; 36 home runs/137 RBI in 2007). In only 54 games with Oakland, it’s still too early to tell if that’s the case. Holliday has eight home runs and 37 RBI this season with the Athletics, and is batting .287 with an on-base percentage of .385.

If the Red Sox are serious about acquiring another power bat for the future, then Holliday would be the guy. He could be the DH if the Red Sox decide to do something with Ortiz, who is owed $12.5 million next season, followed by a club option in 2011 at the same price.

Or the Red Sox could hold onto Ortiz, keep him closer to the bottom of the batting order as the DH, and do something more interesting, filling more than just one hole this offseason.

That other hole at the top of Boston’s priority list is at the shortstop position. Talk of a deal to replace the trio of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Jed Lowrie has trumped the Brad Penny trade talk in recent days. It has even been reported that the Red Sox are making “diligent” efforts to acquire that replacement in recent weeks. From a rumored return of Orlando Cabrera, to adding a 42-year-old veteran in Omar Vizquel, it seems the Red Sox front office is sick and tired of having this position hurt the team both in the field and at the plate.

Making a move to add one of the aforementioned shortstops would again be nothing more than a “band-aid” acquisition. After the season, it’s time for Epstein to add a player who’s going to put an end to the everyday question that is the Boston Red Sox shortstop.

And there are options. Look no further than Florida’s Hanley Ramirez. Originally traded to the Marlins after the 2005 season in a deal for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, Ramirez is one of the game’s top players at the early age of 25. It was even rumored that the Red Sox made a play for Ramirez this past offseason, after losing out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes.

Ramirez would fill the hole at shortstop for years to come, and would also provide that power bat needed after this season.

Several players the Marlins would most certainly inquire about are Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Daniel Bard. Any way you look at it, in order to land Ramirez, the Red Sox would have to part ways with Ellsbury and Buchholz, at the very least. And at this point, it’s a deal that the Red Sox would be wise to pull the trigger on, if proposed.

The Red Sox shouldn’t have a problem letting go of Buchholz or Bowden, but Ellsbury’s current value to the Red Sox is greater because he’s actually a part of their major league club right now.

If the Red Sox would be willing to deal Ellsbury, then it would open up that spot for Holliday to sign, meaning Ortiz would remain the DH and play out the rest of his contract.

But if the Red Sox were willing to deal Ellsbury and sign Holliday to play center, why not first try to kill three birds with one stone?

Not catching my drift? Not only do the Red Sox need a new franchise shortstop and another bat for the middle of the lineup, but they also need a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Ellsbury has recently been moved from the leadoff spot to consistently hitting eighth. And if Terry Francona wanted Ellsbury back in that leadoff spot, he would have put him back there on Sunday, instead of moving him to the No. 2 spot behind Pedroia just because the newest No. 2 hitter, Drew, had the day off.

He was moved out of the leadoff spot because his .332 on-base percentage ranked 23rd among leadoff hitters in the majors, so he clearly has work to do at the plate if he wants to be an everyday table-setter for the Red Sox.

With that in mind, and while we’re talking about Ellsbury being thrown into a package for a future shortstop, while making room for Holliday, and wanting a legitimate leadoff hitter with more speed on the base paths than Pedroia, why not revert back to a trade I proposed this past offseason.

That’s right, I’ll say it again. Why not try to trade for Jose Reyes?

If the New York Mets suffer their third consecutive collapse, it will be time for them to somehow break up the “Big Three” and try to acquire some starting pitching to help out their one-man gang, Johan Santana.

Give the Mets a package of Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden, and Lowrie. And in return receive Reyes, then sign Holliday. The Red Sox would acquire an everyday leadoff hitter, a franchise shortstop (who’s only three months older than Ellsbury), and a bat to replace Ortiz. The Red Sox would answer three big holes while only giving up one player who’s currently making an impact with the major league club.

Buchholz and Bowden are top pitching prospects with a lot of value. They would undoubtedly be able to step right into a major league rotation, and more specifically, the Mets’ rotation, behind Santana.

At the same time, it remains to be seen when Buchholz and Bowden will be a part of Boston’s long-term plans. The Red Sox may even be reluctant to showcase the two arms for an extended period of time at the major-league level because of the risk that comes along with doing so.

Instead of risking a disaster, and decreasing their trade value (Buchholz already took a hit after going 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA in 15 starts with Boston last year), the Red Sox should package both Buchholz and Bowden with Ellsbury and Lowrie to try and acquire Reyes.

If pulled off, the Red Sox would once again have an opening for Holliday. Imagine the 2010 lineup:

Reyes SS
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis 1B
Bay LF
Drew RF
Holliday CF
Ortiz DH
Lowell 3B
Varitek C

That’s just one scenario, based on the fact that Francona would want to throw in a lefty in between the two and five spots in the order. Either way, that looks a lot better than having Ellsbury in there, with Buchholz and/or Bowden still in the minors, waiting for their shot, wasting their trade value.

Big Papi is showing signs of a comeback of sorts. But as much as he recovers, it’s too late to hide from the glaring truth. Ortiz is on the decline. Beginning to replace him this offseason is a good start. And while they’re at it, why not fill in a few more holes.

The Red Sox have the young talent and money to pull off something like this, even if they have to pay Ortiz $12.5 million next year to hit seventh and DH. But by now, you should have accepted it.

The hardest part is over. It’s time to move on.

Say it ain't so

The following is the second of a three part column on the recent decline of David Ortiz, the hope that it’s not as bad as it seems, and the future of a Red Sox offense that once called Big Papi its savior

When Angel Presinal became linked to David Ortiz in spring training, it looked like a story that had the potential to never go away. Surprisingly, the after-taste of that not-so-intriguing news didn’t last long at all.

In fact, Presinal is rarely brought up anywhere these days, even though his name swirled around reports in spring training that he was spotted hanging with Alex Rodriguez as late as 2007.

Presinal was in the spotlight then, and his past raised questions as to why Ortiz would choose to work out with him, when he knew Presinal had been banned by MLB clubhouses for being caught with an unmarked bag of steroids at a Toronto airport in 2001.

Ortiz has never tested positive for steroids, and he was not named in the Mitchell Report. Yet, a recent link to Presinal certainly has baseball reporters, statisticians, and fans alike looking back at Ortiz’ timeline, similar to what we’ve done with every player who’s been accused of performance-enhancing drug use in the past.

We want to know his numbers, when they began to inflate, and when they began to drop off. Did his power numbers come out of nowhere? Did he stop producing once testing got serious? All were questions that began to haunt Ortiz through newspaper columns and radio airwaves.

By looking at those numbers, you’ll notice that Ortiz had his break-out year in 2003, his first season with the Red Sox, after six years with the Minnesota Twins. In those six years, Ortiz’ numbers increased each season, from nine home runs and 46 RBI in 1998 to 20 home runs and 75 RBI in 2002.

His first year with the Red Sox, Ortiz hit 31 home runs and had 101 RBI. He followed that up with season totals of 41/139 in 2004, 47/148 in 2005, and 54/137 in 2006.

Those numbers have since dipped, and combine the decline with news that Ortiz has worked out with a man banned from MLB clubhouses and the fact that there is an anonymous list out there of 104 players (including A-Rod) who failed a performance-enhancing drug test in 2003, and suspicion looms over the head of a Red Sox legend.

If there were ever a player who you’d think would want to come out and clear his name from the cloud of suspicion that is the steroid era, it would be Ortiz, based on the simple fact that he had a break-out year in 2003, the same season in which the 104 failed steroid tests are from.

But Ortiz, like mostly every other MLB player, believes we should just move on, instead of seeing that list, instead of assuring us all that he was clean and his breakout season was nothing more than just a 27-year old getting the chance to see more playing time and hitting his stride.

Whether it’s his legitimate age, the tests he may or may not have failed, or the people he’s surrounded himself with, nobody can deny that Ortiz' decline began when he went from 54 home runs and 137 RBI in 2006 to 35 home runs and 117 RBI in 2007, followed by 23 home runs and 89 RBI in 2008.

To be fair, 35/117 in 2007 is pretty damn good for a "decline" year, and in 2008 Ortiz did battle injuries and had 113 less at-bats in only 109 games.

But Ortiz is now on pace for only four home runs and just under 60 RBI in 2009, if he plays the rest of the season at a full-time pace. In this Red Sox offense, only 55-60 RBI would be a complete failure for a guy who would have had 100 in a similar offense the year before, had he played a complete season.

And only four home runs wouldn't just be a decline, it would be a career-ender. If Big Papi finishes this season only having put four balls in the seats, then there's no doubt the Red Sox will inherit a replacement bat in the offseason.

Even if Ortiz breaks out of it in the weeks to come, the Red Sox do have to realize he is in a decline at 33 years of age (which again is what we're led to believe), and they'll have to find a way to upgrade the offense this winter either way.

But we aren’t close to winter, and for the time being, Ortiz is still playing in Boston. We’re all still waiting for him to play a significant role, even if some of us have thrown in the towel on his career.

The Red Sox are tied for first place in the AL East through June 3. They’re in a five-way tie for second-most wins in Major League Baseball (31, tied with Yankees and Rangers for most in AL). Clearly, Ortiz’ struggles have not affected Boston’s success as much as you’d expect.

Terry Francona has benched him for an entire weekend series. He’s even moved him from third to sixth in the batting order. Nothing has worked.

Ortiz has the day off Thursday against left-hander Dontrelle Willis. His eighth-inning two-RBI double off lefty reliever Nate Robertson Wednesday night drove in what ended up being the game-winning runs in a 10-5 Red Sox win. It also marked Ortiz’ third-straight game with a hit.

That’s not something to get crazy over, but it does get you thinking, what if?

What if Ortiz suddenly went on a tear? What if all this time he was just pressing to hit home runs and lost focus? What if he started shortening his swing to get some hits and his confidence came back? What if he really is 33? What if this slump has nothing to do with past steroid use? What if it was all mental?

All of these questions are usually answered by the time the next Ortiz at-bat is over, bringing you back to reality, and leaving you longing for the past. You continue to hope for something better, only to realize that it’s time for the Red Sox to move on.

You've accepted the fact the Ortiz is in a decline. You've accepted the reasons for it, that past injuries may be catching up to him, or that maybe he's older than advertised. You understand that his glory days are in the past.

You just hope it has nothing to do with Angel Presinal.

When the music stops

The following is the first of a three part column on the recent decline of David Ortiz, the hope that it’s not as bad as it seems, and the future of a Boston Red Sox offense that once called Big Papi its savior

What happens when a tree falls in the woods? Does it make a sound? Better yet, does it get back up, and shake off the dirt?

Surely it makes a sound, but nobody is there to hear it. And without the help of a lumberjack, it usually remains on the ground, only to rot away with time.

David Ortiz isn’t exactly in the woods. People can see this fall with their own eyes. They are fully aware of what's happening. But the question still remains, will the Red Sox’ 6-foot-4, 33-year-old (which is what we're led to believe) tree get back up? And if so, how long will it take?

Big Papi’s original lumberjack, Manny Ramirez, is gone. And after being moved down the lineup to the No. 6 spot, it now seems as if only Ortiz can pick himself up.

With a batting average of .186 and only one home run , many of you have hit the panic button. Some of you have smashed the panic button to the point where it's no longer existent. Those of you aren't just calling for an immediate replacement, you're now calling for Mr. Ortiz' head.

While I have a tough time believing that Ortiz is completely finished, I can't sit here and argue with you if you're anxious for some type of production from the guy, other than 0-for-4 and 1-for-5 performances night in and night out. But replacing his bat right now isn't as easy as everyone in Boston is making it out to be, for several reasons.

Even though two months is an abnormally long slump, to think that Ortiz has gone from being one of the most dominant players in the league to an automatic out with no home run power overnight is a little hard to believe, even for the Red Sox organization.

And with that in the back of everyone's mind, giving up a major piece of the team's future to replace a player that they believe could break out of this historic slump at some point wouldn't be in their best interest.

A few of the names being thrown out in recent weeks have been Washington's Nick Johnson and Cleveland's Victor Martinez. If the Red Sox want to go out and acquire Johnson, I'm all for it, just not in return for Manny Delcarmen, which is what the rumored asking price was.

And do you honestly think the Indians are going to trade the 30-year-old Martinez for nothing? He's only making $7 million next season (team option), so the team can afford his services for one more year. But even if they couldn't, Cleveland would certainly be able to find a better deal than what the Red Sox can afford to give up, given the circumstances.

Those circumstances include the hope that Ortiz will break out of this slump, and the fact that no matter how bad Ortiz has been, the Red Sox still find themselves only one game out of first place in the AL East as of June 3.

A deal right now, a little less than two full months before the trade deadline, would certainly be a panic move on the part of the Red Sox. For everything that hasn’t gone as advertised in the first two months of the season for Boston, the fact that the Red Sox are still where they are in the standings is quite amazing.

If anything, the Red Sox have some more time to wait for Ortiz to come around. But not much.

Let’s say Theo Epstein pulled the trigger on a deal in the next few weeks that gave up an important piece to replace Ortiz’ bat, and Ortiz put together a couple big games at the plate. The guy deserves a shot to try and get on a roll, and the team can only benefit from letting Ortiz get his confidence back.

Then let’s say Ortiz goes on a tear. What is Terry Francona going to do, tell Big Papi to sit down because Theo gave up a lot to acquire his replacement?

If Ortiz did happen to turn it around before it was too late, then the Red Sox would have traded an important piece to acquire someone who wouldn't be seeing much playing time, if any.

As a team that's not exactly struggling at the moment, the Red Sox don't seem to be in dire need of Ortiz' services right now. But we can all agree, eventually he'll need to either snap out of it, or be replaced.

Throwing in the towel on Ortiz this season would be telling the baseball world that his career has come to an end. The decline is in progress. It's happening. We all see it. But is it as drastic a fall from grace as it currently looks?

That is the biggest question of them all.