Second-guessing

Red Sox manager Terry Francona has set his starting rotation for the first three games of the ALDS, and for the second straight postseason, he's chosen Jon Lester over the man who won him a World Series in 2007

It's a good problem to have.

In fact, most managers in Major League Baseball would choose to face this type of issue in October.

Imagine having to ask yourself, "Who should I go with in Game 1, Josh Beckett or Jon Lester?"

It's a question that requires an answer, of course. It's also a question that nobody else in the league has had to wake up to everyday over the last few weeks.

Having two aces at the top of your rotation is a privilege. You don't have to tell that to the organizations that can't win World Series titles. They already know how important it is to have that kind of pitching depth, that kind of one-two punch at the front of a rotation.

They know because they haven't had it. And instead, they've lost to teams that did.

Beckett and Lester make the Red Sox a serious World Series contender, if not the outright favorite to win it all. Nobody's arguing that.

But as simple as that analysis is to process, the answer to the very question which every MLB manager wishes they could ask, doesn't come as easy. So while it's a good problem to have, it's still something that needs to be decided.

And as of Sunday evening, Terry Francona named Lester his Game 1 starter in Los Angeles against the Angels later this week, followed by Beckett in Game 2, and Clay Buchholz in Game 3.

With each Divisional Series only a best-of-five, Francona has yet to name his Game 4 starter, but with Tim Wakefield (back) being left off the team's 25-man ALDS roster, all signs point to a rejuvenated Daisuke Matsuzaka to get the ball in Game 4 at Fenway Park, if necessary.

Choosing Buchholz over Matsuzaka is an issue for later in the week, but giving Lester the Game 1 ball for the second consecutive ALDS is something that, this time around, I just don't understand.

Entering last postseason, Lester was called upon for Game 1 mainly because Beckett had suffered an oblique injury just prior to the start of the ALDS, which was also against the Angels. This year, the decision to go with Lester over Beckett isn't injury related.

It's the type of decision that speaks volumes. Not because of what Lester isn't, but because of what Beckett is. And in case you forgot, let me refresh your memory.

In 12 career postseason starts (through eight total series in 2003, 2007, and 2008), Beckett is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA. That includes three complete-game shutouts, and a 96/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 total postseason innings pitched.

Do you really want me to keep going?

As if that doesn't prove enough, at the age of 29 (five years older than Lester) Beckett has two World Series rings, and has been named ALCS MVP and World Series MVP. Not only has Beckett won two championships, but he was the biggest reason both the 2003 Florida Marlins and the 2007 Boston Red Sox won those championships.

In fact, Beckett had never even been on the losing end of a playoff series until last year's ALCS, in which the Red Sox lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven games. Beckett went 1-0 in two starts with a brutal 9.64 ERA in that series, but he was clearly not 100 percent healthy.

Game 2 of that 2008 ALCS wasn't his finest postseason moment. In 4.1 innings, Beckett allowed eight earned runs on nine hits and three homers. He didn't receive the loss because Mike Timlin allowed the game-winning run in the bottom of the 11th, breaking an 8-8 tie, and evening the series at 1-1. But it might as well had been the turning point in a series that the Red Sox later trailed 3-1, forcing a Game 7, and then running out of gas.

If that Game 2 debacle was any indication of how much the Red Sox need Beckett to come through in 2009, then his 2007 postseason performance should give you every reason why Francona should be giving Beckett the ball in Game 1 of this year's ALDS.

In four playoff starts in 2007, Beckett went 4-0, allowing only four earned runs in 30 innings pitched, and walked only two batters while striking out 35. It's also fitting that his lone complete-game shutout in that postseason came in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Angels.

But knowing all of that, Francona has still called upon Lester to lead the way. The same Lester that's 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in five career postseason starts. Not bad numbers, by any means. But not anywhere close to the postseason dominance that Beckett has shown throughout his career.

At the same time, Lester (15-8, 3.41 ERA) has finished the 2009 regular season a lot stronger than Beckett (17-6, 3.86). Since the All-Star break, Lester went 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA. Beckett wasn't as bad as advertised in the second half (6-3, 4.53 ERA since All-Star break), but he certainly didn't look as dominant as Lester in the final month.

So it got me thinking. What's the deciding factor when choosing a Game 1 starter?

Is it the history of a pitcher's postseason dominance, or is it the more-recent, regular-season success of a streaking starter?

There's no doubt that Lester is currently the hotter of the two pitchers. But there's also no denying that Beckett is one of the more consistently dominant postseason pitchers Major League Baseball has seen in a long time.

And not for nothing, while Beckett's second-half ERA hasn't been great, he's seen his stretches of dominance in 2009, hence the 17-6 record.

But still, Francona will go with Lester. He'll go with the starter who's had more-recent, regular-season success, rather than the pitcher with a history of postseason dominance.

Like I said before, it's a good problem to have. And with Lester's recent dominance, you could make a very strong argument that giving him the Game 1 ball will make the Red Sox just as tough to beat this postseason than they were in 2007. Both Beckett and Lester are that good.

But if you projected the worst-case scenario, that each and every series went the distance, up through the World Series, who would you want to give the ball to the most? Who would you want to lead you out of the gate? Who would you want to finish off the World Series?

You could have the guy who's dominated since the All-Star break, and has a .500 postseason record. Or, you could have the guy who has put two World Championship teams on his back in October, but who's struggled in recent weeks.

Remember October of 2007?

Yeah, I think I'd be willing to put September of 2009 behind me.