Moving Boston Forward

One of the league's more dominant closers couldn't save Boston's season on Sunday, but as the Red Sox enter their offseason sooner than expected, Jonathan Papelbon is the last player that general manager Theo Epstein should be looking to replace

You won't find Jonathan Papelbon or Daniel Bard on your November ballot.

But if Red Sox fans could cast their vote, then Bard would be the heavy favorite to become Boston's next closer.

Fortunately, for the Red Sox organization, positional battles aren't won or lost on the vote of the constituency. Because based on the number of boo-birds at Fenway Park as Papelbon walked off the field Sunday, it's clear that many Bostonians have long been frustrated with the closer's less-than-perfect 2009 campaign.

And as Vladimir Guerrero ripped a first-pitch fastball up the middle to score both the tying and game-winning runs in the top of the ninth inning of Game 3, it became even more evident that it was time for a change somewhere within the Red Sox organization, an organization that went from winning the 2007 World Series, to losing in the 2008 ALCS, to now being eliminated in the 2009 ALDS.

The Red Sox still had another chance, in the bottom of the ninth, to try and counter the 7-6 lead which the Los Angeles Angels took after trailing 6-4 through eight innings. But even the most die-hard fans, even those who showed up to the tumble-weed infested Lansdowne Street to buy a ticket for Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, knew that this Red Sox team had nothing left.

The bags might as well had been packed. The tee-times might as well had been made. After Papelbon blew the save, there was no turning back. And now, the only thing left to do, is move forward.

Doing so will consist of some changes. Those changes, however, should not include Papelbon. He's still the closer, and like I said back in September, he should be for years to come.

According to Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein on Monday, his offseason priorities will include improving both the team's offense on the road, and the team's overall defense. But by looking at Boston's regular season totals in those categories, Epstein's plan of action this winter may be even more straightforward than that.

The Red Sox finished the 2009 postseason, all three games of it, with only one run scored in two road games, and a team batting average of .131 in both of those games in Los Angeles. They also made more errors (four) than any other playoff team through three postseason games.

But Boston's offense on the road and its overall defense wasn't nearly as bad in the regular season. The Red Sox ranked ninth in the majors in runs scored (391), and had the seventh-best fielding percentage (.986) throughout the league.

While those are numbers that certainly could improve in 2010, you don't have to dig through the home/away splits or fielding percentages to target the Red Sox' biggest offseason need. All you have to do is look at the box scores.

Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell - the four through seven batters in Boston's lineup - all combined for only one RBI in this year's ALDS. Granted it marked just a span of three games, Lowell's RBI single in the eighth inning of Game 3 wasn't enough production from the middle of the Red Sox' lineup to get the job done.

Out of those four, Youkilis is currently the only player who is locked up with the team for more than one year. Ortiz ($12.5 million in 2010/$12.5 million club option in 2011) and Lowell ($12 million in 2010) each have one more year left on their contracts, while Bay is a free agent this winter.

With Bay and outfielder Matt Holliday the top two offensive attractions this offseason, you would think the Red Sox would be able to either keep Bay, or at the very least, sign Holliday to replace him. Figuring that Epstein will have his left-fielder of the future locked up in one of those two players, the bigger question remains within the future of Ortiz and Lowell in Boston.

Ortiz turns 34 in November. Lowell will be 36 in February. Neither are getting more productive. And with only one more guaranteed year on each player's contract, now may be the time for Red Sox management to think about replacing their bats.

It's clear to see that Mark Teixeira was the difference-maker in the race for the American League East. Boston's failed attempt to strike a deal with Teixeira helped the Yankees in the present, and hurt the Red Sox in the future.

Teixeira would have been that "bat for the future" - as I've been calling it all season long - in Boston, but instead, the Red Sox find themselves still searching. And now, Epstein may have to get creative in order to make something happen.

Expect to hear Clay Buchholz' name come up again this winter, as it did this past trade deadline. Why? Because the 25-year-old has proven that he can pitch in the majors. And even before he proved that this season, Buchholz was still on the top of every team's wish list.

The question isn't whether or not other MLB teams want Buchholz, it's whether or not the Red Sox would trade him to acquire that "bat for the future."

Using Buchholz as trade bait this offseason would undoubtedly get Boston its best possible player in return. Even if it meant packaging a few top prospects with him to get a deal done, this would be the winter to make it happen.

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times, Buchholz' trade value will never be greater than this offseason. He dominated Triple-A Pawtucket the first half of the season, then established himself as the No. 3 starter for Boston in the final months of the regular season, finishing it up with a solid outing in Game 3 of the ALDS.

And as I've also said many times before, pitching shouldn't be a concern for this Red Sox team moving forward. With Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka returning, I told you in July that the Red Sox shouldn't trade Buchholz (with prospects) for Roy Halladay, and why instead, they should hold onto him to acquire that "bat for the future" in the offseason.

Step one is complete: Buchholz wasn't traded for Halladay. Step two remains to be seen.

For the next few weeks, you're going to continue to hear about what went wrong in the ALDS against the Angels. You're going to hear from those who want to trade Papelbon, and make Bard the closer. Those are the people that won't be looking at the big picture.

Offense will be a priority this winter. You heard Epstein say so. But will it be at the expense of someone like Buchholz?

If it means adding an All-Star bat for the future, then the Red Sox have my vote.